Climate Change Impacts on Frost and Thaw Considerations: Case Study of Airport Pavement Design in Canada

Rising temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the freeze–thaw condition of airport pavements in cold regions. This case study investigates implications warming on penetration and frost heave critical airports across Canada. To this end, different methods were used quantification process through simulations considering emission scenario RCP8.5 20 40 year time horizons. The results show that would have design for pavements, depending their location. predictions suggest a shallower depth, possibly less heave, not underlain by permafrost, while over permafrost areas might experience an increase thickness active layer, ranging from 41 57 percent, 2061. Among study, it was observed some performed better predicting depth fine soils, others worked prediction coarse soils. indicate need more mechanistic models provide realistic penetration, as compared existing empirical models.